Part 1 - Part 2 - Part 3
Update... A last minute surge pushed this project's total over $525K, simultaneously clearing the next stretch goal (removal of all ads from the front page) and dictating that my prediction failure rate for this project settles at 100%. But it's all correct in spirit! It's the most bullshit way of being correct. In other news Mike Krahulik's follow up post (written 2 hours before the fact and thus also inaccurate!) pretty clearly demonstrates that he is not exactly using my writings as a guidebook! But he is suggesting they'll come at it again next year so that pleases me. And all critique aside my general attitude after the fact is congratulations, and good luck).
With 6 hours to go on their Kickstarter project and over $35K left to meet the next goal (that would render the front page ad-free), barring the late entry of a wealthy "angel" type donor I think I finally landed on a correct prediction on Penny Arcade's foray into crowd funding in the million-plus arena.
For the Penny Arcade business, the project is only just begun. Unfortunately I think the limited success of the project is likely to have some ongoing negative impacts. This isn't anything even approaching a business-sinking gaffe for Penny Arcade, and they may well leverage it into solid gains, but they have certainly cut out a piece of work for their not-quite-half-million.
Some of the work I think will be a straight up loss. Printing and distributing the "reward" recognition certificates - I have probably sufficiently expressed the poor value I think this effort represents. I doubt there will be much value in the stunt of Mike Krahulik being filmed shouting at a duck (which will probably need the services of a pet psychologist afterwards). What are these extraneous activities really going to do except remind people of how far the project fell short of its aspirations?
The biggest if for me from the amount of work perspective is the Reality Show "Strip Search". Since a 4th season of the Penny Arcade show seemed like a given it's questionable whether people will really interpret it as a success of the Kickstarter. Beyond that it seems the concept for the show most fraught with the peril of being an absolute train wreck. Then again, I was completely skeptical of the idea of a show at all and ended up watching most of the episodes over the last 3 seasons, though I feel like it hit a peak with the first season finale that it's never quite surpassed. Also, while it may have been something to do with the filming schedule more than editorial choices, I thought it disappointing that the series to date hasn't strayed outside the "fun hijinks in a very special office" and heartwarming scenes from PAX and Child's Play arena (the whole dickwolves controversy, which was reasonably active for the better part of 6 months, receives not a whisper, for example. Never happened).
Beyond all this it is demonstrably true that "reality" selection contests do a rotten job of finding the next big anything - the potential for this show being a real turd seems high. But like I say, I've been wrong before, and Penny Arcade might just break the mold by choosing contestants based on their raw talent rather than how good of television they're likely to produce. What that does for the show is a real poser, but I might end up with another webcomic I actually want to follow.
Here's a sticky question: is it a good idea for Penny Arcade to do any of the projects that it proposed but didn't hit the funding goal for? To do so suggests that the donation requests were unnecessary and to imply that you will get whatever you get whether you support it or not. Now if they don't repeat this experiment then that won't really matter. If they do it becomes an issue. With some items (say, the Twisp and Catsby children's book) this doesn't much matter. With others (a mobile App) there's an argument that this thing is long overdue and failing to make it is kind of a sign of falling behind the state of the art in online.
Despite all this I actually hope they try it again next year. I hope the project isn't just wrapped up with a bland cheer for having gotten well beyond the goal but that its shortfall and shortcomings are acknowledged and backed with a pledge to take it to the next level next year.
I hope that in this speculative next time they set the goal as the actual goal - a million dollars for an ad-free Penny Arcade. I hope they give it the support it deserves with a decent package of exclusive rewards that have values in a decent ballpark of their actual worth. Make a project that relies on the people and tames the high-dollar inside-baseball rewards to a reasonable level. I hope they take advantage of the basic low-hanging fruit: signing stuff, for example, is the ultimate low-effort value multiplier that was totally neglected in the campaign. I hope they rethink the stretch goals and keep the core-business content goals down in the lower tiers (what you really want to attain) and hold the fan service stuff for the real stretch (encourage the superfans to kick in extra to see the service).
Mostly I hope they think about the message and hone it to a fine point. Direct funding is a great idea, an awesome idea whose time has come but the the sad reality is that many people simply will not pay. They will sit through an ad, and the advertisers will pay for the chance to practice their unholy arts in the confidence that they can profitably manipulate some portion of the most self-centered, jaded audience of non-participants. You have to talk a percentage of the crowd into paying more than their fair share. I hope the next pitch video has more and more diverse humor but that it is the spice in a solid gumbo of showing the content and pitching the principle. I hope they convince me to pitch in more than 5 bucks.
And now I've seriously gone down the rabbit hole with Penny Arcade, enough I say! Enough. Next time: something else.
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