Monday, October 10, 2011

Will Netflix's furious backpedaling arrest its share price tailspin?

And the answer is - as a non-stockholder, I don't really care. Now you probably recall my most recent Phreakshow post, in which I:

1) Reiterated my opinion that recent Netflix price increases were reasonable and expected and that people complaining about them were being "whiney", but
2) Complained about getting business communications in the form of "personal" communications from corporation executives
3) Complained about fake corporate apologies that don't actually fix anything
4) Called out the proposed division of Netflix into the Qwikster DVD service and the Netflix streaming service for adding complexity and organizational effort to the customer experience with no attendant consumer benefit
5) Offered thinly veiled insinuations that the Netflix business decisions were being driven by CEO Reed Hastings having a mid-life crisis over having made his fortune basically running a glorified direct-mail business, and finally
6) Pointed out that the real problem was Netflix's poor on-demand selection.

So, it's no secret that NFLX share prices have been diligently headed for the toilet since hitting an all-time July high near $300, and in particular have been in a scary plunge since mid-September, when they fell off the $200 cliff and proceeded to languish in the low $100s since. Given the nearly universal derision the Qwikster announcement got I was none too surprised (but certainly gratified) to get a notice in my inbox this morning letting me know that Netflix had decided to call the whole thing off.

Hey, wait a minute, let's take a glance over the notable qualities of this email...

1) It's a straightforward business announcement from "The Netflix Team"
2) It eschews explicit apology and affirms the necessity of recent price increases, but acknowledges customers didn't want the businesses to be split
3) Reverses the business split decision ("no change... no Qwikster") and finally
4) Announces a raft of additions to the streaming library and asserts a commitment to continually improving the streaming service.

Damn it Netflix, my day rate for business strategy consultation to publicly traded companies is $2500 and that is cheap, Greenspan charges six figures and look where his advice has gotten us. I've got to stop giving this gold away for free.

I suppose the other interpretation is that I have no credentials whatsoever to analyze business so I just rehash the mind-numbingly obvious but seriously, how likely is that?

And Reed... Sorry about the mid-life crisis crack.